What are the elements of a Theory of Change?

Developing a TOC involves mapping backwards from an ultimate outcome by detailing successive levels of preconditions: Imagine it as building a pyramid from the top down. First-level preconditions tend to be somewhat abstract; each subsequent level is more concrete.

A TOC includes the following components:

• Ultimate outcome: This is the final, ideal end-state you wish to achieve. Because it is an ideal, the ultimate outcome may never be fully achievable – but it is where you want to head!
  In this case, the ultimate outcome describes what would be happening if an individual community foundation fully realized its community leadership potential. The ultimate outcome is an aspiration and the frame of reference for everything built out below it.
  
  
• Multiple levels of preconditions: Preconditions are “building blocks” that describe what must be in place to reach the ultimate outcome.
  In theory-of-change construction, each first-level precondition has its own set of second-level preconditions. The process of generating successive levels of preconditions is repeated until sufficient clarity has been achieved regarding what it takes to reach the ultimate outcome.²
  
  
• Embedded assumptions or hypotheses: These are things you know you don’t know or are unsure about.
  As it becomes more fully developed, this theory of change will surface assumptions about (a) the nature of community leadership, (b) the attributes of community foundations that practice community leadership, and (c) the links between interventions and the outcomes they are expected to produce. It is surprising how many hidden assumptions are buried in complex concepts, and how many worthwhile efforts are derailed by the failure to surface assumptions at the outset.
  
  
• Broken or weak links: These are places in the TOC where preconditions are absent or only partially met.
  The broken or weak links are the places where interventions can make the most difference in achieving the ultimate outcome.

A common misconception is that all preconditions must be met before you can make progress on the ultimate outcome. It helps to approach preconditions with a “practice makes perfect” mindset. You can, and should, exercise community leadership if all you have is gumption. Most preconditions to Community Leadership can be strengthened by exercising community leadership in some form.

2. Symmetry is not a goal; some preconditions will have many next-level preconditions under them; others will have a few. Some will also have more subsequent levels of preconditions than others. The goal is clarity.