What is a Theory of Change?

Theory of change does not have a universally accepted definition or protocol. The approach developed by the Aspen Institute¹ and its partners is employed here.

Theory of change defines the building blocks, or preconditions, necessary to reach a long-term goal or “ultimate outcome.” Put it in more practical terms, TOC is:

• A new way of looking at complex issues, focused on why things do or do not work
• A tool for planning that starts from analysis rather than intuition
• A way of targeting exactly the right interventions to achieve your desired results.

Theory of change is extraordinarily versatile. It methodically unpacks complex concepts. It can be used both for planning and evaluation, or simply to take stock. It supports innovation and experimentation by defining outcomes without prescribing how to reach them. Visual representations of TOCs are like a zoom lens: it is possible to see the big picture or to home in on a particular detail.

1 To learn more about theory of change, visit http://www.theoryofchange.org/html/basics.html.